ارزیابی تاثیر جایگزینی سوخت در بخش حمل و نقل بر انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده مهندسی مکانیک و انرژی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

گاز طبیعی به عنوان سوخت واسط برای کاهش انتشار کربن در کوتاه مدت پیشنهاد شده است. مطالعه حاضر به بررسی اثرات جایگزینی بنزین با گاز طبیعی می‌پردازد. به این منظور از یک مدل سیستم عرضه انرژی به نام مسج به همراه معادلات پیش‌بینی تقاضا استفاده شده است. این چارچوب برای برآورد اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم تغییر از بنزین به سی‌ان‌جی در خودرو سبک بخش حمل و نقل ایران به کمک مکانیزم قیمتی برای انگیزه‌دهی به مصرف‌کننده استفاده شده است. قیمت نسبی بنزین به گاز طبیعی در دو سناریو به مقدار 20 و 73 درصد افزایش داده شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم از طریق پنج کانال اصلی اعمال می‌شود: اثر مستقیم جایگزینی بنزین و گاز در سبد خانوار، اثر درآمدی، بالادستی صنعت گاز و بالادستی صنعت نفت و هزینه‌های سیستم عرضه انرژی. انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای به دلیل اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم جایگزینی بنزین با گاز طبیعی به ترتیب حدود 2100 و 5100 گیگاگرم معادل دی اکسید کربن در سناریوهای 1 و 2 تغییر قیمت نسبی کاهش می‌یابد. هزینه سیستم عرضه انرژی نیز به میزان 0.3% و 1.3% کاهش می یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


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