بررسی تأثیر مصرف انواع انرژی های تجدیدپذیر و تجدیدناپذیر بر رفاه اقتصادی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجو کارشناسی ارشد برنامه ریزی سیستم های اقتصادی، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود، شاهرود، ایران

2 استادیار اقتصاد، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود، شاهرود، ایران

چکیده

نقش انرژی در جهت رفاه و توسعه اقتصادی کشورها اهمیت موضوع انرژی را بیش از پیش نمایان می‌سازد. تاکنون مطالعه اساسی در خصوص اثرات انرژی بر رفاه اقتصادی در کشور ایران انجام نشده است. لذا در این پژوهش اثر مصرف انواع انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر و تجدیدناپذیر بر رفاه اقتصادی در ایران طی دوره 1397-1360 بررسی شده است. برای تحلیل موضوع از مدل خود رگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی (ARDL) و روش هم‌انباشتگی برای تعیین وجود رابطه کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت بین متغیرها استفاده شده است. نتایج برآورد مدل تحقیق نشان داد که سرعت تعدیل مدل تصحیح خطا در جهت تعادل بلندمدت حدود 61 درصد است. رابطه رفاه اقتصادی با متغیرهای سرانه تولید ناخالص داخلی، نیروی کار، شاخص جینی و انواع منابع انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر و تجدیدناپذیر (خورشید، باد، آب، زمین گرمایی، نفت، گاز و بنزین) چه در کوتاه‌مدت و چه بلندمدت، مستقیم است. به طوری که میزان افزایش یک درصدی در متغیرهای برونزای تحقیق به ترتیب منجر به افزایش 85/0، 66/0، 45/0، 61/0، 56/0، 36/0، 31/0، 72/0، 76/0 و 34/0 درصدی در رفاه جامعه خواهد شد. باوجود وفور نسبی انرژی‌های تجدیدناپذیر (نفت و گاز) در ایران و عدم استفاده بهینه از آنها، مثبت شدن اثر انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر بر رفاه اقتصادی حاکی از آن است که استفاده از این نوع انرژی‌ها در کنار انرژی‌های تجدیدناپذیر منجر به افزایش رفاه اقتصادی جامعه خواهد شد.

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