ارزیابی کمی امنیت انرژی ایران و تحلیل حساسیت نتایج به‌نحوه محاسبه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشکده مهندسی مکانیک و انرژی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

10.22034/jrenew.2026.248029
چکیده
در این مطالعه ضمن ارائه تعریف بومی و بروزشده برای امنیت انرژی، با استفاده از 22 شاخص در 5 دسته کلی شامل تداوم عرضه پایدار، ایمنی و اطمینان عرضه، محدودیت‌های محیط‌زیستی و منابع طبیعی، محدودیت‌های اقتصادی و تاب‌آوری و محدودیت‌های سیاسی-امنیتی، شاخص کلی امنیت انرژی ایران در دوره 1384-1400 با استفاده از روش وزن‌دهی شانون-تاپسیس ازریابی شده است.. با توجه به نقش فناوری‌های تجدیدپذیر در توسعه پایدار، در این مطالعه تاثیر کمیابی مواد حیاتی خام مورد نیاز فناوری‌های تجدیدپذیر نیز بر امنیت انرژی دیده شده است.. نتایج نشان ‌می‌دهند دسته‌ محدودیت‌های اقتصادی و امنیتی و محدودیت‌های زیست‌محیطی وضعیت نزولی شدیدتری را تجربه کرده‌اند.. شاخص ترکیبی امنیت انرژی بطور متوسط روند نزولی را در طی دوره مذکور طی کرده است.. بالاترین و پایین‌ترین شاخص امنیت انرژی در طی دوره مورد بررسی به ترتیب برای سال 1386 با شاخص 0..56 و سال 1397 با شاخص 0..38 ارزیابی شده است.. از شاخص هرفیندال-هیرشمن به‌عنوان شاخص کمیابی مواد حیاتی خام مورد نیاز فناوری‌های تجدیدپذیر استفاده شده است.. مقادیر محاسبه شده نشان‌دهنده تمرکز بالای تولید این مواد در تعداد محدودی از کشورهای خاص است که این موضوع امنیت انرژی کشور را کاهش می‌دهد.. در این مقاله، تحلیل حساسیت شاخص امنیت انرژی نسبت به روش‌های نرمال‌سازی، تجمیع و دسته‌بندی شاخص‌ها انجام شده است تا علت اختلافات مشاهده‌شده در محاسبات امنیت انرژی در مطالعات مختلف بررسی شود.. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که محاسبه امنیت انرژی به‌ویژه نسبت به روش نرمال‌سازی از حساسیت بالایی برخوردار است..

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

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  • تاریخ دریافت 22 فروردین 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 29 تیر 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 28 شهریور 1404