An Analysis of  Residential Buildings under the Influence of Climate Change in the Coming Decades (Case Study: Residential Buildings of Eram, Tabriz)

Saadatjoo, Paria; Alizadeh, Ali; Jahanbakhsh Asl, Saeed; Khorshiddoust, Ali Mohammad; Sari Sarraf, Behrouz

doi:10.22034/jrenew.2024.198283

An Analysis of Residential Buildings under the Influence of Climate Change in the Coming Decades (Case Study: Residential Buildings of Eram, Tabriz)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Paria Saadatjoo ¹

Ali Alizadeh ²

Saeed Jahanbakhsh Asl ³

Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust ⁴

Behrouz Sari Sarraf ³

¹ Assistant Professor, Department of Architecture, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

² Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Climatology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

³ Professor, Department of Climatology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

⁴ Professor, Department of Climatology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.

https://doi.org/10.22034/jrenew.2024.198283

Abstract

Buildings presently use 30% of global energy, set to rise due to climate change. This study assesses climate change's impact on energy consumption(heating/cooling loads) in Tabriz over six decades. It also compares the effect of several energy efficient solutions in buildings. Future weather data for 2050 and 2080 was generated by CCWorldWeatherGen based on existing files. Identifying the prevalent housing type in Eram, energy simulations for the current and next 60 years used Design Builder 7.0.0.096. Applying energy reduction strategies, the study evaluates thermal performance, energy consumption, and environmental impact.

In all models, heating peaks in 2020, and cooling surges by 28.69% and 63.34% in 2050 and 2080 versus 2020. Model WI shows the lowest cooling energy variation at 66.66%. COM models rank as the most efficient in 2020, 2050, and 2080, cutting energy consumption by 8.24%, 11.95%, and 12.83%.

Climate change raises annual energy consumption by 4% in the current building model. Comparing strategies, two models—COM and thermal insulation WI—enhance building performance in 2020, 2050, and 2080. These findings stress the urgency of implementing strategies to mitigate climate-induced escalation in building energy consumption.

Keywords

Climate Change

Residential Building

Energy Consumption

Cooling

Heating

Subjects

Renewable Energy

- مراجع

[1] C. Symon, “Climate change: Action, trends and implications for business,” 2013.

[2]J. Zuo, S. Pullen, J. Palmer, H. Bennetts, N. Chileshe, and T. Ma, “Impacts of heat waves and corresponding measures: a review,” J. Clean. Prod., vol. 92, pp. 1–12, 2015, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.12.078.

[3] L. F. Cabeza and D. Ürge-Vorsatz, “The role of buildings in the energy transition in the context of the climate change challenge,” Glob. Transitions, vol. 2, pp. 257–260, 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.glt.2020.11.004.

[4] V. Ciancio, F. Salata, S. Falasca, G. Curci, I. Golasi, and P. de Wilde, “Energy demands of buildings in the framework of climate change: An investigation across Europe,” Sustain. Cities Soc., vol. 60, p. 102213, 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102213.

[5] P. Saadatjoo, P. Badamchizadeh, and M. Mahdavinejad, “Towards the new generation of courtyard buildings as a healthy living concept for post-pandemic era,” Sustain. Cities Soc., vol. 97, p. 104726, 2023, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2023.104726.

[6] IEA, “World Energy Outlook,” 2019.

[7] N. Milojevic-Dupont and F. Creutzig, “Machine learning for geographically differentiated climate change mitigation in urban areas,” Sustain. Cities Soc., vol. 64, p. 102526, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102526.

[8] M. A. D. Larsen, S. Petrović, A. M. Radoszynski, R. McKenna, and O. Balyk, “Climate change impacts on trends and extremes in future heating and cooling demands over Europe,” Energy Build., vol. 226, p. 110397, 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2020.110397.

[9] C. Wang, Z.-H. Wang, K. E. Kaloush, and J. Shacat, “Cool pavements for urban heat island mitigation: A synthetic review,” Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev., vol. 146, p. 111171, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.111171.

[10] R. Bardhan, R. Debnath, J. Gama, and U. Vijay, “REST framework: A modelling approach towards cooling energy stress mitigation plans for future cities in warming Global South,” Sustain. Cities Soc., vol. 61, p. 102315, 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102315.

[11] P. Saadatjoo, M. Mahdavinejad, G. Zhang, and K. Vali, “Influence of permeability ratio on wind-driven ventilation and cooling load of mid-rise buildings,” Sustain. Cities Soc., vol. 70, p. 102894, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.102894.

[12] Elham Saligheh and P. Saadatjoo, “Impact of Building Porosity on Self-Shading and Absorbed Solar Heat Reduction in Hot and Humid Regions,” Naqshejahan-Basic Stud. New Technol. Archit. Plan., vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 203–217, 2020.

[13] M. P. Tootkaboni, I. Ballarini, and V. Corrado, “Analysing the future energy performance of residential buildings in the most populated Italian climatic zone: A study of climate change impacts,” Energy Reports, vol. 7, pp. 8548–8560, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2021.04.012.

[14] P. Saadatjoo, “Investigating the Effect of Building Facade Recess on Urban Wind Flow Performance,” Arman. Archit. Urban Dev., vol. 14, no. 37, pp. 43–60, 2022.

[15] P. Saadatjoo, M. Mahdavinejad, and A. Zarkesh, “Porosity Rendering in High-Performance Architecture : Wind-Driven Natural Ventilation and Porosity Distribution Patterns,” vol. 12, no. 26, pp. 73–87, 2019, doi: 10.22034/AAUD.2019.89057.

[16] P. Shen, “Impacts of climate change on U.S. building energy use by using downscaled hourly future weather data,” Energy Build., vol. 134, pp. 61–70, 2017, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2016.09.028.

[17] P. Shen and J. R. Lukes, “Impact of global warming on performance of ground source heat pumps in US climate zones,” Energy Convers. Manag., vol. 101, pp. 632–643, 2015, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2015.06.027.

[18] U. Berardi and P. Jafarpur, “Assessing the impact of climate change on building heating and cooling energy demand in Canada,” Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev., vol. 121, p. 109681, 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.109681.

[19] S. Flores-Larsen, C. Filippín, and G. Barea, “Impact of climate change on energy use and bioclimatic design of residential buildings in the 21st century in Argentina,” Energy Build., vol. 184, pp. 216–229, 2019, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2018.12.015.

[20] I. G. Dino and C. Meral Akgül, “9,” Renew. Energy, vol. 141, pp. 828–846, 2019, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.03.150.

[21] V. Andreu, C. Aparicio, A. Martínez Ibernón, and J.-L. Vivancos, “Impact of climate change on heating and cooling energy demand in a residential building in a Mediterranean climate,” Energy, vol. 165, pp. 63–74, Dec. 2018, doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.015.

[22] E. Rodrigues and M. S. Fernandes, “Overheating risk in Mediterranean residential buildings: Comparison of current and future climate scenarios,” Appl. Energy, vol. 259, p. 114110, 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114110.

[23] E. L. A. da Guarda et al., “The influence of climate change on renewable energy systems designed to achieve zero energy buildings in the present: A case study in the Brazilian Savannah,” ,” Sustain. Cities Soc., vol. 52, p. 101843, 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101843.

[24] S. Attia and C. Gobin, “Climate Change Effects on Belgian Households: A Case Study of a Nearly Zero Energy Building,” Energies, vol. 13, no. 20. 2020, doi: 10.3390/en13205357.

[25] Y. Zou, K. Xiang, Q. Zhan, and Z. Li, “A simulation-based method to predict the life cycle energy performance of residential buildings in different climate zones of China,” Build. Environ., vol. 193, p. 107663, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2021.107663.

[26] C. Baglivo, P. M. Congedo, G. Murrone, and D. Lezzi, “Long-term predictive energy analysis of a high-performance building in a mediterranean climate under climate change,” Energy, vol. 238, p. 121641, 2022, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121641.

[27] S. Flores Larsen, C. Filippín, and G. Barea, “Impact of climate change on energy use and bioclimatic design of residential buildings in the 21st century in Argentina,” Energy Build., vol. 184, Dec. 2018, doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2018.12.015.

[28] Z. J. Zhai and J. M. Helman, “Implications of climate changes to building energy and design,” Sustain. Cities Soc., vol. 44, pp. 511–519, 2019, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2018.10.043.

[29] F. Abbasizade, M. Abbaspour, M. Soltanieh, and A. Haj Mulla kani, “Climate change and its impact on energy consumption in buildings,” J. Environ. Sci. Technol., 2021, doi: 10.22034/jest.2021.55451.5166.

[30] S. Golkar, H. Yousefi, M. Salehi, ََa. Fathi, and K. Aazadi, “The effects of climate on energy consumption of the building’s heating and cooling,” Iran. J. Ecohydrol., vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 691–703, 2022, doi: 10.22059/ije.2023.350637.1694.

[31] D. Mokhtari and V. Emami Kia, “Zoning The Application of Urban Land in Tabriz Eram Town Based on Fundamental Components of Geomorphologic Hazards,” Geogr. Plan. Sp., vol. 4, no. 12, pp. 149–172, 2014, [Online]. Available: https://gps.gu.ac.ir/article_7509.html.

[32] M. Jentsch, A. Bahaj, and P. James, “Climate change future proofing of buildings—Generation and assessment of building simulation weather files,” Energy Build., vol. 40, pp. 2148–2168, Dec. 2008, doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2008.06.005.

[33] M. F. Jentsch, P. A. B. James, L. Bourikas, and A. S. Bahaj, “Transforming existing weather data for worldwide locations to enable energy and building performance simulation under future climates,” Renew. Energy, vol. 55, pp. 514–524, 2013, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2012.12.049.

[34] K.-T. Huang and R.-L. Hwang, “Future trends of residential building cooling energy and passive adaptation measures to counteract climate change: The case of Taiwan,” Appl. Energy, vol. 184, pp. 1230–1240, 2016, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.11.008.

[35] A. Sabunas and A. Kanapickas, “Estimation of climate change impact on energy consumption in a residential building in Kaunas, Lithuania, using HEED Software,” Energy Procedia, vol. 128, pp. 92–99, 2017, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2017.09.020.

[36] R. Dickinson, “Generating future weather files for resilience. In: Pablo La Roche MS, editor. International conference on passive and low energy architecture,” 2016.

[37] A. H. Mansouri A, Aminnejad B, Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on Inflow Runoff into the Karun-4 Dam Based on IPCC’s Fourth and Fifth Report, JWSS - Journal of Water and Soil Science, Vol. 22, No. 2, 2018.

[38] Z. S. Zomorodian and M. Tahsildoost, “Validation of Energy Simulation Programs: An Empirical and Comparative Approach,” NECjournals, vol. 18, no. 4, p. 0, Jan. 2016, [Online]. Available: http://necjournals.ir/article-1-803-en.html.

[39] H. Nazir et al., “Recent developments in phase change materials for energy storage applications: A review,” Int. J. Heat Mass Transf., vol. 129, pp. 491–523, 2019, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijheatmasstransfer.2018.09.126