بررسی رابطه علیت بین مصرف حامل‌‌های انرژی و رشد اقتصادی در استان‌‌های ایران (رهیافت علیت گرنجر،گرنجر – هشیائو، تودا و یاماماتو در داده‌‌های تابلویی)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجو دکتری اقتصادپولی - بین الملل، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

2 استادیار اقتصاد، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران

3 کارشناسی ارشد، بانکداری اسلامی، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران

چکیده

هدف اصلی این ‌‌مقاله بررسی رابطه علیت بین مصرف حامل‌‌های انرژی و رشد اقتصادی در استان‌‌های ایران طی سال‌‌های 1397-1390با استفاده از آزمون علیت گرنجر، گرنجر- هشیائو، تودا و یاماماتو در داده‌‌های تابلویی می‌‌باشد. برای این منظور از متغیرهای تولید ناخالص داخلی، نیروی‌‌کار، سرمایه‌‌گذاری عمرانی و مصرف حامل‌‌های انرژِی (نفت‌‌ سفید، گازمایع، بنزین و گازوئیل) استفاده شد. نتایج حاصل از تخمین مدل نشان می‌‌دهد که بین متغیرهای مصرف حامل‌‌های انرژی و رشد اقتصادی در استان‌‌های ایران، یک رابطه علیت یک ‌‌طرفه از سوی مصرف حامل‌‌های انرژی به‌‌ رشد اقتصادی در استان‌‌های ایران برقرار است به این معنا که با افزایش مصرف حامل‌‌های انرژی، رشد اقتصادی افزایش پیدا می‌‌کند. این رابطه علیت یک طرفه در هر دو رویکرد علیت تأیید می‌‌شود. پس با توجه به نتایج بدست آمده از پژوهش توصیه سیاستی  این است که دولت با دادن بخشی از اعتبارات عمرانی به بانک‌‌ها در صورت افزایش مصرف حامل‌‌های انرژی، اشتغال را در جامعه ایجاد کرده و منجر به اشتغال نیروی‌‌کار در جامعه شود. بازده عملی اعطای چنین اختیاری این است که هر چه تعداد افراد فعال در تولید کالاها و خدمات بیشتر باشد رشد اقتصادی نیز افزایش خواهد یافت.

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